大气科学学报2012，Vol.35Issue(1)：121-127,7.
河西走廊东部大风气候特征及预报
Climate characteristics of the gale and its forecast in east Hexi corridor
摘要
Abstract
Using gale data （≥level 6 with ten minute average wind velocity≥10.8—13.8 m/s） of four meteorological stations in east Hexi corridor from 1971 to 2010,such climate characteristics as space and time distribution,intensity and endurance of the gales were analyzed systematically.The results show that gales mainly occur in the mountainous area and the edge of desert.Annual gale days and interdecadal gale days presents a reducing tendency.March to May is gale frequent period,which occupies 34.8%—56.8% of annual gale days.Then it is February,June and November.Gale days of different intensities vary a lot.The number of gale days reduces rapidly along with the elevation of gale intensity.Gale weather presents long-enduring characteristic and strong gale usually occur in sustained period of gale.Based on the daily data of ECMWF numerical forecast grid field at 20：00 BST from 2003 to 2007,forecast factor was initially elected by Press criterion and was further selected by stepwise regression forecast method.The gale forecast equations were built with optimal subset regression.The overall situation and the most superior significance forecast equations of the gale in every season in different areas were determined finally by the CSC double grading criterion.The forecast equations passed significance examination of α=0.01.Back substitution fitting rates of the prognostic equations were 66.7%—73.4% and forecast accuracy rates were 58.8%—67.5%,which achieved the forecast level to provide objective and effective instruction for gale forecast.The closest approaching principle was used to set forecast marginal value,ranks of gale forecast and early warning.关键词
河西走廊东部/大风/气候特征/ECMWF/数值预报Key words
east Hexi corridor/gale/climate characteristic/ECMWF/numerical forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨晓玲,丁文魁,袁金梅,陈玲..河西走廊东部大风气候特征及预报[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(1):121-127,7.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY（QX）201106029） （）
