农业工程学报2012，Vol.28Issue(8)：11-18,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.08.002
农作区净灌溉需水量模拟及不确定性分析
Simulation and uncertainty analysis of net irrigation requirement in agricultural area
摘要
Abstract
Net irrigation requirement is the major component of agricultural water use. In this study,the regional net irrigation requirement of agricultural area in Shiyang river basin in semi-arid region of Northwest China was analyzed. Based on the zones of local agricultural water use,the key factors are chosen by driving factor analysis (1959-2005),and then regional net irrigation requirement was simulated using multiple-linear regression (MLR),artificial neural network (ANN) and Ensemble ANN models. Then discrimination time-series Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation is used for inputs uncertainty analysis of these models. Results suggest that compared with MLR and ANN,the Ensemble ANN model show better ability in the simulation of regional net irrigation requirement with smallest error and lowest uncertainty index.关键词
灌溉/不确定性分析/蒙特卡洛模拟/多元线性回归模型/人工神经网络集成模型Key words
irrigation/uncertainty analysis/Monte Carlo methods/multiple-linear regression/ensemble artificial neural networks分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
马黎华,康绍忠,粟晓玲,佟玲..农作区净灌溉需水量模拟及不确定性分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(8):11-18,8.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2011AA100502) （863计划）
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51109211) （51109211）
西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费科技创新重点项目 (编号QN201168) （编号QN201168）
