农业工程学报2012，Vol.28Issue(8)：186-194,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.08.029
基于自然灾害系统理论的辽宁省玉米干旱风险分析
Analysis on drought risk of maize based on natural disaster system theory in Liaoning province
摘要
Abstract
In order to reduce the effect of drought on maize production,taking Liaoning province as the study area,maize drought risk index was built by 4 factors,including the actual drought occurred frequency,the agro-meteorological drought occurred frequency,the maize relative exposure rate and maize production per unit area based on the 46 years daily meteorological data,as well as the yield and cultivated area of maize at 23 meteorological sites. Using the SPSS(statistical program for social sciences)and GIS(geographic information system),the maize drought risk zone was analyzed on the basis of the maize drought risk index in Liaoning province. The results showed that 30% of the meteorological sites were in high-risk areas and mainly distributed in western Liaoning hilly and coastal areas in southern Liaoning; the drought medium-risk zone was mainly distributed in western corridor,Liaozhong plain and vicinity of Bohai bay; the drought low-risk zone was distributed in Liaodong mountainous areas. And then,the relationship between drought risk index and maize yield at more than 50% of the sites were significantly correlated. The index of maize drought risk constructed in this paper objectively reflected the effects of drought on maize production. This study provides a scientific foundation for maize disaster prevention and disaster management.关键词
干旱/风险分析/地理信息系统/风险指数/风险区划/玉米Key words
drought/risk assessment/geographic information systems/risk index/risk zoning/maize分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
单琨,刘布春,刘园,杨晓娟,乐章燕,王健..基于自然灾害系统理论的辽宁省玉米干旱风险分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(8):186-194,9.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费“应用于农业保险的气象灾害损失评估模型的研究”(BSRF200801) （BSRF200801）
“东北地区主要作物天气指数保险和风险区划研究”(BSRF201102). （BSRF201102）
