农业机械学报2012，Vol.43Issue(1)：89-93,133,6.DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2012.01.017
冬小麦产量分阶段预测模型
Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Multi-stage Model
摘要
Abstract
In order to search for more timeliness and accuracy of forecasting methods, Yutian County, Hebei Province was chosen as the pilot site. A three-year field experiments were conducted on winter wheat. During different growing periods, three yield-contribution factors were measured in situ and the analysis was done. The results revealed that single-factor model of application allowed the prediction of time ahead of winter wheat yield to the heading stage; the prediction accuracy can reach to 88% . Prediction of two factor model can be advanced to the heading stage to the early filling stage, and the AI is more than 90% . This study provided an effective method namely the multi-stage prediction model to effectively predict crop yield. It can overcome the regular operation problems and provide important references for agriculture warning system by remoter sensing at all levels of agricultural crop production forecast.关键词
冬小麦/产量构成/多阶段预测模型Key words
Winter wheat/ Production component/ Multi-stage production estimation model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
何亚娟,汪庆发,裴志远,王连林,马志平,潘学标..冬小麦产量分阶段预测模型[J].农业机械学报,2012,43(1):89-93,133,6.基金项目
农业部农业信息预警财政专项资助项目(2130111) （2130111）
