气候变化研究进展2012，Vol.8Issue(2)：90-98,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.02.003
极端天气和气候事件的变化
Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes
摘要
Abstract
There is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of changes in some weather and climate extremes. It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to increase of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures on the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to increase in mean sea level. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation on the global scale. The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging. Confidence in projecting changes in the direction and magnitude of weather and climate extremes depends on many factors, including the type of extreme, the region and season, the amount and quality of observational data, the level of understanding of the underlying processes, and the reliability of their simulation in models.关键词
极端天气和气候事件/气候变化/归因Key words
weather and climate extreme/climate change/attribution引用本文复制引用
罗亚丽..极端天气和气候事件的变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(2):90-98,9.基金项目
973计划项目(2012CB417202) （2012CB417202）
国家自然科学基金项目(41175049，40921003) （41175049，40921003）
