气象2012，Vol.38Issue(5)：569-576,8.
北京市强降雨分区及重现期研究
The Study of Beijing＇s Rainstorm Division and Its Return Periods
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the precipitation data at Beijing Observatory from 1841 to 2008,and the rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations and 82 rainfall stations for nearly five decades,are used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the precipitation in Beijing at different subregions,and the rainfall data-by -minute are used by the Generalized Pareto Distribution（GPD） method to analyze the short-duration rainfall in Beijing at different return periods.The results have shown that：Beijing has two rainy periods of 1871-1894 and 1947-1960 and two dry periods of 1853—1870 and 1992 - present.From the 1970s to 1980s,the heavy rainfall in Beijing mainly occurred in urban area.After the 1990s,the short duration of heavy rainfall displayed the local characteristics of the uneven distribution,and heavy precipitation centers roughly changed to a southwest-northeast banded distribution.According to the rainfall spatial distribution and EOF analysis,the rainfall region can be divided into four subregions,i.e.mountain areas,urban centers, northeast mountains and southeast plains.The result of rainfall in different return periods is close to the existing drainage specifications,which means that the simulation results of return period are reliable.关键词
北京/强降雨/分区/重现期Key words
Beijing City/severe precipitation/division/return period分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
马京津,李书严,王冀..北京市强降雨分区及重现期研究[J].气象,2012,38(5):569-576,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 （）
中国气象局气候变化专项 （）
北京市科委“极端天气事件对城市安全运行的影响评估系统研究”共同资助 （）
