气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(1)：30-38,9.
下投探空资料在台风莫拉克路径预报的应用试验
An experiment in application of the dropsonde data to forecasting the track of Typhoon Morakot
摘要
Abstract
The experiment deploying dropsonde was, for the first time in mainland China, launched on 7 August 2009 over the South China Sea. Eleven dropsondes are released when the aircraft flied across the relatively thin cloud zone between Typhoon Morakot and the tropical depression Goni. Based on the dropsonde data taken from this experiment, the reliability of dropsonde data is tested, then a preliminary analysis is done on the characteristics of atmosphere such as the wind field and humidity field over the South China Sea. The feature of wind profile in the southwestern part of Morakot is revealed as a deep layer of southwestern airflow from low to middle level of the troposphere, whereas the feature of the humidity field exhibits both relatively low humidity at the lower and upper level of the troposphere, and relatively moist at the middle level. To investigate the impact of the dropsonde data upon the typhoon's track forecast, two experiments are designed. One experiment with the initial condition obtained with the assimilation of dropsonde data (the assimilation experiment) and the other without it (the control experiment) , are run for 72 hours by using the GRAPES model, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) With the assimilation of dropsonde data, southwesterly weakens below 800 hPa, then strengthens from 800 hPa to 100 hPa, with the humidity weakening below 500 hPa at initial time. (2) The difference of wind field between with and without the assimilation of data at the initial time propagates to downstream regions with the increase of integration time, affecting the environment of typhoon and modifying the typhoon steering flow. The forecast track error of typhoon is reduced by 18% in 48 hours with the assimilation of dropsonde data. It is considered that the assimilation of dropsonde data released in the upstream regions of Typhoon Morakot improves the typhoon forecast track in this case.关键词
下投探空资料/同化试验/台风路径预报Key words
Dropsonde data/Assimilation experiment/Typhoon track forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张诚忠,万齐林,丁伟钰,陈子通,黄燕燕..下投探空资料在台风莫拉克路径预报的应用试验[J].气象学报,2012,70(1):30-38,9.基金项目
公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200706014、GYHY291996016)、国家自然科学基金项目(41075040、40775058、41075083). （GYHY200706014、GYHY291996016）
