水科学进展2012，Vol.23Issue(2)：147-155,9.
气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法
Evaluation on the influence of natural climate variability in assessing climate change impacts on water resources:Ⅰ.Model and methodology in baseline period
摘要
Abstract
Water resources assessment impacted by climate change is very important to water resources planning and management. This issue is becoming more urgent as evidences of intensifying climate change are growing. In the current research of climate change impact, climate natural fluctuation (variability) has seldom been studied separately. It keeps attributing all changes (runoff, e. g. ) to climate change, which may lead to wrong understanding of climate change impact assessment. Since without long enough historical series, impacts of climate variability have been always avoided deliberately. Aiming at this issue, this study proposed a type of simulation methodology, which could analyze the effect of climate natural variability by means of reproducing long series based on the baseline period resampling. The wide used time horizon (1961-1990) was selected as baseline period. Based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique, a block sampling approach was proposed for climate variability simulation. TOPMODEL ( TOPog-raphy based hydrological MODEL) as a hydrological model was employed, while GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) for hydrological model parameters calibration and uncertainty, and climate variability uncertainty was estimated. The results show that changes from climate variability has a comparable magnitude with that from climate change, which highlights the importance to separate impacts of climate variability from the total variation in assessing climate change, instead of attributing all changes to climate change solely.关键词
气候变化/气候自然变异/分段抽样模拟方法/影响评价/不确定性/水资源Key words
climate change/ climate natural variability/ block sampling simulation approach/ impact assessment/ uncertainty/ water resources分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘艳丽,张建云,王国庆,刘九夫,贺瑞敏,王鸿杰,金君良..气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):147-155,9.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB951103) （973）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009094) （51009094）
