水科学进展2012，Vol.23Issue(2)：186-193,8.
基于三维copula函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析
Synchronous asynchronous encounter analysis of multiple hydrologic regions based on 3 D copula function
摘要
Abstract
Analyzing the probability of synchronous asynchronous encounter of multiple hydrologic regions can be reduced to the problem of estimating multivariate probability distribution functions. However, the problem can become more complicated when more hydrologic regions and variables are involved. This study presents a simple and effective method for solving high-dimensional (n≥3) copula-based multivariate probability distribution functions. The latter is used to analyze the joint probability and the conditional probability of annual runoff in the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River. The result shows a high-dimensional (n≥3) copula-based multivariate probability distribution function can be easily constructed for the three rivers using the methodology. For a given set of hydrological variables, it is possible that several candidate copulas fit the variable reasonably well. The goodness-of-fit test can be applied to identify the best copula. The probability of synchronous asynchronous encounter of multiple hydrologic regions can thus be analyzed based on the best copula. Comparing to the method for converting a multi-dimensional space into a one-dimensional one, the three-dimensional Frank copula is simple, excellent goodness of fit, unbiased, and effective.关键词
三维copula函数/丰枯遭遇/多变量/概率分布模型Key words
3 D copula function/ synchronous asynchronous encounter analysis/ multivariate/ probability distribution function分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谢华,罗强,黄介生..基于三维copula函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):186-193,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50909074) （50909074）
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAD08B03) （2012BAD08B03）
