水力发电2012，Vol.38Issue(2)：10-12,3.
灰色系统理论在干旱预测中的应用研究
Application of Grey System Theory on Drought Prediction
摘要
Abstract
The frequent occurrence of drought can lead to a vicious cycle of agricultural production, continuous environment degradation and an increase in pollution. Research on drought assessment, forecasting and early warning has become a serious issue to control drought disaster. Based on the annual precipitation data in Huaxian County, the gray GM (1,1) model is used to predict the future drought occurrence after taking the drought as a gray system. The model test shows that the model is credible and can be used for drought and water supply prediction in Huaxian area. The predictions show that there will be drought during 2012-2013 and 2019-2020.关键词
灰色理论/干旱预测/GM(1,1)模型/华县Key words
grey theory/ drought prediction/ GM( 1,1) model/ Huaxian County分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘代勇,梁忠民,赵卫民,刘晓伟..灰色系统理论在干旱预测中的应用研究[J].水力发电,2012,38(2):10-12,3.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(200901022) （200901022）
云南省科技计划项目(2010CA013) （2010CA013）
