水力发电学报2012，Vol.31Issue(1)：5-9,5.
LHS-MC方法在漫坝风险分析中的应用
Overtopping risk analysis using LHS-MC method
摘要
Abstract
This study develops a LHS-MC method to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood,and examines the use of Latin hypercube sampling（LHS） as a tool for better efficiency of MC random sampling method.LHS is used to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed,especially for rare events.To demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed method,an example of dam overtopping risk analysis is presented.Application in numerical examples shows that LHS is faster in convergence and more efficient than MC simulation.Reservoir routing that incorporates operation rules,wind setup and run-up,can generally be used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.关键词
防洪/漫坝/拉丁超立方抽样/蒙特卡罗模拟/风险分析Key words
flood protection/dam overtopping/Latin hypercube sampling/Monte Carlo simulation/risk analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李传奇,王帅,王薇,龚洁..LHS-MC方法在漫坝风险分析中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(1):5-9,5.基金项目
国际科技合作与交流计划项目 （）
