水利水电科技进展2012，Vol.32Issue(2)：42-45,88,5.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2012.02.010
黄河内蒙古段开河日期预报模型及应用
Application of the break-up date prediction model in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
The ice flood characteristics in Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River are analyzed in the papers. Selecting from 1970-1971 year to 2007-2008 year ice conditions data and extracting the appropriate predictors, we use artificial neural network model and multiple linear regression model to forecast the date of break-up in Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River. The results show that predicition sample pass rates of the artificial neural network model and multiple linear regression model are respectively 86.7%and 80.0% . This indicates that forecasting accuracy of artificial neural network model is better than the one of multiple linear regression model, and the artificial neural network model is applied to the ice forecast of break-up date.关键词
冰凌/黄河内蒙古段/开河日期/多元线性回归/神经网络Key words
ice flood/Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/break-up date/multiple linear regression/artificial neural network分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
冀鸿兰,张傲妲,高瑞忠,张宝森,徐晶..黄河内蒙古段开河日期预报模型及应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2012,32(2):42-45,88,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(510660001) （510660001）
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2010MS0618) （2010MS0618）
黄河水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所专项(HKY-JBYW-2010-04) （HKY-JBYW-2010-04）
内蒙古水利厅科技计划(201007) （201007）
