水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(3)：344-353,362,11.
基于Modflow的潜水位对气候变化和人类活动改变的响应
Modeling on impacts of climate change and human activities variability on the shallow groundwater level using Modflow
摘要
Abstract
A model of the unconfined groundwater movement in the Wuqiao County,North China Plain,was developed based on GMS-Modflow.The calibrated model was then used to simulate the response of the shallow groundwater level（SGL） to the climate change（CC） and the human activities（HA） variability under three scenarios,namely the standard,CC and HA variability in the conning 40 years.The result shows that the SGL will decline at the speed of 19.3cm/a under current condition,thus the SGL will decrease by 7.74m from the beginning of 2011 to the beginning of 2050.Under emission circumstances of A1B,A2 and B1,though the average annual precipitation predicted by GCMs may increase by 4.1%,5.37% and 3.86% in the conning forty years,the SGL will decrease at 16.9cm/a,18.5cm/a and 19.3cm/a considering if direct and indirect influences of CC are considered simultaneously.This result indicates that the slight increase of the precipitation will not obviously slow down the drop of SGL in the future.Therefore,the artificial measures must be taken to retard the dropping of SGL.For relieving the dropping SGL water-saving technologies must be promoted,such as,using non-conventional water resources（e.g.the waste water） to substitute the conventional water and to raise the surface water supply.It will aggravate the SGL increase the water pumping from the confined aquifer and increase non-irrigation water.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/潜水位/Modflow/节水措施Key words
climate change/human activities variability/shallow groundwater level/Modflow/water-saving measures分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈皓锐,高占义,王少丽,胡亚琼..基于Modflow的潜水位对气候变化和人类活动改变的响应[J].水利学报,2012,43(3):344-353,362,11.基金项目
水利部与联合国儿童基金会合作项目 （）
