水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(4)：404-413,10.
情景分析技术在未来太湖水位预见中的应用
Application of scenario analysis technique on future water level foresight of the Taihu Lake
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global warming and intensive urbanization, the flood characteristics in the Tai- hu Basin have been experiencing and will keep changing greatly. By adopting the scenario analysis tech- nique, the response of water level of the Taihu Lake to future climate change and human activities is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC coupled with the hydraulic model ISIS, while the future climate scenarios are generated by the regional climate model PRECIS. The results show that there is a significant increasing trend of impervious surface area, wlhile other types of land cover show decreasing trends during 2021--2050. Furthermore, the maximum and mean flood water levels under future scenarios （2021--2050） will be greater than that under the baseline scenario （1961--1990）, and the return periods of storm resulting in the same flood water level will reduce remarkably, implying more frequent occurrence of big floods in the future. These facts arc of certain guiding significance in future flood control and waterlogging drainage projects planning in the Taihu Basin.关键词
情景分析技术/气候变化/人类活动/洪水/水文-水动力模拟/太湖水位Key words
scenario analysis technique/climate change/human activities/flood/hydro--dynamic simulation/water level of the Taihu Lake分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘浏,胡昌伟,徐宗学,程晓陶..情景分析技术在未来太湖水位预见中的应用[J].水利学报,2012,43(4):404-413,10.基金项目
中国水利水电科学研究院开放研究基金 （）
科技部国际合作重大项目 （）
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
国家自然科学基金重点项目 （）
