中国生态农业学报2012，Vol.20Issue(6)：788-794,7.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2012.00788
辽西北玉米干旱脆弱性评价模型构建与区划研究
Vulnerability evaluation and regionalization of drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on IPCC definition of vulnerability within the context of climate change, a risk assessment model of maize vulnerability to drought was established from the perspectives of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability. Given drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province, 17 indexes related to crop physiological, meteorological and socio-economic factors were selected for the model simulation. The vulnerability indexes of maize to drought were calculated using the entropy and comprehensive weight evaluation methods. Four typical drought years (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2006) in Northeastern Liaoning Province were used to verify and test the applicability of the model. The maize vulnerability indexes to drought were divided into 5 grades on which basis maize vulnerability zone maps were isolated in GIS environment for typical drought years. The results showed that the areas with high drought vulnerability were mainly concentrated around Fuxin, Chaoyang and Huludao Counties. The areas with high vulnerability displayed a temporal regular pattern of 2006 > 1999 > 2001 > 2000. The level of drought vulnerability in 2006 was the highest, and had the most extensive impact area due to the precipitation anomaly in the growing season of that year. Regression analysis of maize vulnerability indexes to drought in the four typical drought years and maize yield loss was also conducted. The analysis showed a basic agreement among the factors for F test of significant at α=0.05. This indicated that it was reasonable to evaluate and predict the maize vulnerability to drought using the established model in the region. The model could be used to evaluate and predict maize vulnerability to drought, drought disaster risk and maize yield loss caused by drought. The results of this study strengthened further basis for local agricultural drought risk assessment and early warning.关键词
玉米/脆弱性评价模型/熵权法/干旱脆弱性指数(DVI)/辽西北地区/区划图Key words
Maize, Vulnerability evaluation model, Entropy Method, Drought vulnerability index, Northwestern Liaoning Province, Regionalization map分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
阎莉,张继权,王春乙,严登华,刘兴朋,佟志军..辽西北玉米干旱脆弱性评价模型构建与区划研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(6):788-794,7.基金项目
"十二五"农村领域国家科技计划课题(2011BAD32B00-04)、全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB951102)、国家自然科学基金项目(41071326)、"十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B04)和国家自然科学基金项目(40871236)资助 （2011BAD32B00-04）
