水资源与水工程学报2012，Vol.23Issue(2)：77-82,6.
塔里木河流域径流变化趋势分析及预测
Trend analysis and forecast of the runoff change in Tarim River basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the observed monthly runoff data for 52 years(1957 -2008) in 5 hydrological stations in headstream areas and the Alar station in the mainstream areas, the paper studied the runoff periodicity, abrupt change and the coming period trends by using the methods as time series periodic variance analysis extrapolation, nonparametric test, and R/S analysis. The results showed that the jump points of the two streams in Aksu river happened in 1993 and its runoff held significant increasing trend and will last for a long time in the coming period. The annual runoff tendency of Tongguzlok and Uruwat was just the reverse without abrupt change, the Yarkant River expressed a slightly increasing trend and its jump point was in 1993, which will turn to decrease trend; Theses aspects, for example abrupt change, annual runoff trend, total annual runoff volume and so on, are not consistent in headstream and mainstream of the areas, which dictates that the annual runoff process is significantly affected by human activity.关键词
径流变化/径流突变/非参数检验/塔里木河流域Key words
runoff change/ abrupt change of runoff/ nonparametric test/ Tarim River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
木塔里甫·托乎提,徐海量,刘新华..塔里木河流域径流变化趋势分析及预测[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(2):77-82,6.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2009CB421308) （2009CB421308）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101049) （201101049）
塔里木河干流生态需水量及恢复对策研究项目共同资助 （）
