新疆农业科学2012，Vol.49Issue(3)：581-587,7.DOI:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2012.03.029
气候变化与人类活动对博斯腾湖入湖径流影响的定量分析
Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities Impact the Inflowing Runoff of Bosten Lake
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] To clarify the effects of climate change and human activities on the Bosten Basin in the Northwest China is helpful for understanding the hydrological processes and water resource management. It is also important for the resources utilization and water - saving in this basin. [ Method ] Materials of lake inflowing, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Dashankou (49 years) were analyzed by using the Mann - Kendall rank correlation method, moving T- test and YAMAMOTO signal - noise ratio test methods, [Result] Results showed that change of precipitation, temperature and runoff in the upper reaches of the Kaiduhe River (Dashankou station) increased significantly, while the inflowing runoff of the lake increased a little. There were two step changes points occurred during 1960 - 2008, one appeared in 1973 and the other in 1987. The 49 -year time series was divided into two parts by the year 1987. Multiple regression equation for the climate factors and runoff was founded by the data in 1960 -1972. Meanwhile, data after 1973 were used to get the natural runoff by the mentioned multiple regression equation. And then, the effects of the climate change and human activities were quantified partitioned. Effects of human activities on the inflowing runoff increased in the past years. [ Conclusion] Better management of the surface water resource and decreasing the effects of human activities were necessary to make sure the enough inflowing runoff of Bosten Lake, in order to protect the ecological environment, and make sustainable development of agricultural production possible and water resource sustainable development.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/径流变化/博斯腾湖Key words
climate change/ human activities/ runoff change/ Bosten Lake分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王俊,陈亚宁,陈忠升..气候变化与人类活动对博斯腾湖入湖径流影响的定量分析[J].新疆农业科学,2012,49(3):581-587,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951003) （973计划）
