系统管理学报2011，Vol.20Issue(1)：98-103,108,7.
基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件预测模型
A Model for Predicting Emergency Event Based on Bayesian Networks
摘要
Abstract
A generic model for predicting emergency event is proposed to help address various events consistently. Utilizing system theory, emergency event is first viewed as a system, and the generic behavior mode about various events is analyzed. Then the method for constructing the Bayesian networks model of predicting emergency events is proposed to deal with the uncertainty of the events, including the nodes selecting and network structure acquiring. The method proposed in this paper can help predict various emergency events using expert's knowledge and historic data. Finally typhoon event is incorporated as an example to demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.关键词
突发事件/应急管理/贝叶斯网络Key words
emergency event/emergency management/Bayesian networks分类
自科综合引用本文复制引用
裘江南,王延章,董磊磊,叶鑫..基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件预测模型[J].系统管理学报,2011,20(1):98-103,108,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(91024029) （91024029）
国家“十一五”科技支撑项目 （）
