阅江学刊2012，Vol.4Issue(2)：61-66,6.
基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究
Study on the Trend of Carbon Emission Caused by Energy Consumption in the Yangtze River Delta
摘要
Abstract
The formula for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption in the Guide to Carbon Emission published by the UN IPCC was employed to calculate the carbon emission caused by energy consumption from 1996 to 2010 in the Yangtze Delta,and the gray forecast model GM（1,1） together with Gompertz Curve Model was adopted to predict and analyze the future trend of the carbon emission from energy consumption in the region.The study suggests that the carbon emission from energy consumption in the Yangtze Delta is currently in a stage of steady growth,which will not reach its peak in short term.Active efforts should be made to develop new energy sources in order to lower the percentage of carbon consumption,further optimize the energy consumption structure,and control and reduce the volume of carbon emission caused by energy consumption.关键词
GM（1,1）模型/Gompertz曲线模型/能源消费/碳排放/长三角地区Key words
GM(1/1) model/Gompertz curve model/energy consumption/carbon emission/Yangtze River Delta分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
葛昕明,巩在武..基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究[J].阅江学刊,2012,4(2):61-66,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金“直觉型偏好群体共识决策理论与方法研究”（71171115）、“残缺信息环境下的专家直觉型判断知识融合与决策方案优选研究” （）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于灰偏好的群体决策理论及应用研究” （）
