中国电力2012，Vol.45Issue(4)：101-107,7.
中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析
Scenario analysis on mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China
摘要
Abstract
By comprehensive consideration of future economic development and the production volume in major industries, the scenarios analysis model of mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China by "bottom-up" method was constructed. The primary energy, electricity demand, energy structure and carbon emission in 2015, 2020 and 2030 of three different circumstances were forecasted. The ratio of non-fossil energy and carbon emission intensity were measured and calculated. The results show that the primary energy demand in China could be raised to about 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the electricity demand could be raised to about 7.7 PW-h by 2020. If maximize the use of all kinds of clean energy, the carbon emission intensity in 2020 can be reduced more than 40%~45% of the carbon emission intensity in 2005, and the ratio of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption could be raised to 15% by 2020 in all the three economic development circumstances.关键词
能源需求/电力需求/碳排放/中长期情景分析/分析模型Key words
energy demand/electricity demand/carbon emissions/mid-long term scenario analysis/analysis model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
徐敏杰,胡兆光,谭显东,单葆国..中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析[J].中国电力,2012,45(4):101-107,7.基金项目
国家电网公司资助项目(项目名称:满足国家低碳发展目标的能源和电力需求研究). （项目名称:满足国家低碳发展目标的能源和电力需求研究）
