北京大学学报（医学版）2012，Vol.44Issue(3)：412-415,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-167X.2012.03.017
EARS在北京市流感大流行预警中的应用
Application of EARS in early-warning of influenza pandemic in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To illustrate the efficiency of cumulative sum (CUSUM) in pre-warning of the influenza peak in Beijing. Methods; CUSUM was used to analyze the data of influenza like illness (ILI) ,and the results of the influenza laboratory surveillance was regarded as the gold standard to judge the approaching of the influenza peak. Results:The surveillance was launched in 421 hospitals in Beijing during the 2009 to 2010 influenza season, while the influenza laboratory surveillance was launched by 7 collaborative laboratories. From Jun. 2009 to Apr. 2010, the average ILI percentage in the 421 hospitals was 2.56%. In the study, 19 262 pharyngeal swab samples were collected from the ILI cases in 11 hospitals and 5 045 of them were tested positive for the influenza virus, with the novel swine-origin influenza A HI Nl virus dominating. After analyzing of the ILI surveillance data with CUSUM, it was found that the ILI surveillance in Beijing could make a satisfactory early warning for the approaching of the influenza peak referring to the gold standard based on the influenza laboratory results. Conclusion: It could give the prediction and early warning for the influenza peak efficiently and precisely, by using CUSUM to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Beijing.关键词
流感/疾病暴发流行/人群监测/疾病报告/数据说明,统计Key words
Influenza/Disease outbreaks/Population surveillance/Disease notification/Data interpretation, statistial分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张代涛,刘民,王全意,杨鹏,张奕,张莉,彭晓旻,石伟先,卢桂兰,梁慧洁,刘医萌..EARS在北京市流感大流行预警中的应用[J].北京大学学报（医学版）,2012,44(3):412-415,4.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划(“863“计划,2008AA02Z416)资助 （“863“计划,2008AA02Z416）
