干旱地区农业研究2012，Vol.30Issue(3)：262-266,278,6.
不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟
Simulation of change trend of crop yields under different climate change scenarios in Northeast and North China
摘要
Abstract
The regional climate models PRECIS and RegCM3 and the crop growth model WOFOST were combined to simulate the changes in crop yields under different climate change scenarios in the future 40a. The preliminary results show that there is a decrease trend in maize yield at southwest part of Northeast China in view of the average values from 2011-2050, and the highest reduction was distributed at the areas of Baicheng, Tongyu in the west part of Jilin province under the three climate change scenarios. There is also a decrease trend in wheat yield in the east part of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Beijing and Tianjin and its east parts under the REA scenario. The reduction trend was also occurred at middle and east parts of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province and the south part of Henan province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Tianjin and the area east of it and the east part of Shandong province under the scenarios A2 and B2.关键词
气候情景/作物生长模型/产量/变化趋势/模拟Key words
climate change scenarios/crop growth model/yield/change trend/simulation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,王靖..不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(3):262-266,278,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAD32B01) （2011BAD32B01）
农业部948计划重点项目(2011-G9-01) （2011-G9-01）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021) （气象）
重庆市科技攻关项目(CSTC,2011AC1168) （CSTC,2011AC1168）
