农业工程学报2012，Vol.28Issue(12)：230-236,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.12.037
1980-2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析
Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008
摘要
Abstract
In order to reveal the heterogeneity of grain production, the spatiotemporal dynamic variation of grain production from 1980 to 2008 and related influencing factors at county level in Bohai Rim was carried out based on Gini coefficient, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial error mode (SEM). The following results were obtained: the amount of grain production increased by 3647×104t, grain production in 282 counties showed an upward trend and gradually concentrated in the plain area and countries whose grain production was higher; grain production at county level in area along Bohai Rim had a strong spatial autocorrelation and regional grain difference will increase in the future, and the polarization trend of per capital grain more serious; the counties with higher grain production gathered in Liaohe plain and western Shandong province, while the lower grain production gathered in mountainous-hilly areas and tableland areas; the main factors which affected the regional pattern of grain production were the arable land area, cropping structure, grain production in former term. This research provides a scientific basis for optimizing grain production distribution and establishing grain production policies.关键词
粮食/生产/地理信息系统/基尼系数/探索性空间数据分析法/时空动态/环渤海地区Key words
grain/ production/ geographic information systems/ Gini coefficient/ exploratory spatial data analysis/ spatial-temporal change/ area along Bohai Rim分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘玉,郭丽英,刘彦随..1980-2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):230-236,7.基金项目
中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室2012年度开放基金资助课题 （）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41130748 （）
41101162). （）
