热带气象学报2012，Vol.28Issue(2)：283-288,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.02.018
基于EMD和集合预报技术的气候预测方法
STUDY OF CLIMATE PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON EMD AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION TECHNIQUE
摘要
Abstract
Climate systems are generally non-stationary. The data processing of climate observations, e.g. multi-step prediction of temperature and precipitation, is usually performed under an assumption that the time series is stationary. This may lead to unsatisfied accuracy in the prediction. In this paper, we study on a new method integrating an ensemble prediction technique and a stepwise regression model based on Mean-Valued Generated Function. By using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), we decomposed a non-stationary time series into a series of Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) components and a trend component which is preliminary stable. Then a prediction model was built for each IMF component using an ensemble prediction technique and a stepwise regression analysis. The final results can be obtained by linear fitting. Using this method and the Visual Studio 2008, we developed a short-term climate prediction system which is calibrated by the temperature anomaly from 88 meteorological observation stations in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region during the Februarys of 1957-2005. Compared to the normal and single prediction, the new method involving the EMD and the ensemble prediction technique has better performance in the prediction of climate change trend and abrupt climate changes when the multi-step prediction is made using historical data.关键词
短期气候预测/经验模态分解(EMD)/集合预报/均生函数逐步回归模型/时间序列Key words
short term climate prediction/ Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)/ ensemble prediction technique/ stepwise regression model based on mean-valued generated function/ time series分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
毕硕本,陈譞,覃志年,徐寅,王必强..基于EMD和集合预报技术的气候预测方法[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(2):283-288,6.基金项目
中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2009MS19(2)) （CMATG2009MS19(2）
国家自然科学基金项目(41071253)共同资助 （41071253）
