热带气象学报2012，Vol.28Issue(3)：379-391,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.03.010
未来全球气候变暖情景下华东地区极端降水变化的数值模拟研究
NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO
摘要
Abstract
The regional climate model (RegCM3) developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation (EP) the next 100 years under the A1B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and-late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10% ~ 15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards e under SERS A1B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.关键词
全球变暖/气候预测/华东地区/极端降水/数值模拟Key words
global warming/ climate prediction/ East China/ extreme precipitation/ numerical simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李新周,刘晓东..未来全球气候变暖情景下华东地区极端降水变化的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(3):379-391,13.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB833406) （2010CB833406）
国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC30B05) （2007BAC30B05）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706029) （气象）
中科院国家外专局创新团队计划(KZZD-EW-TZ-03)联合资助 （KZZD-EW-TZ-03）
