水科学进展2012，Vol.23Issue(3)：396-402,7.
梯级施工导流系统整体风险分析
Integrated risk analysis for the cascade of system diversion
摘要
Abstract
For the cascade hydropower plant development it is important to conduct a risk analysis on the cascade system of construction diversion, which is composed of two adjacent hydropower stations undergoing synchronous construction. Based on the risk assessment theory, and considering the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties, an integrated risk analysis model is developed. The risk calculations for different combinations of flood events can thus be carried out using the integrated risk analysis model and the Monte-Carlo method to couple with major risk factors. Aiming at the condition of floods encounter, the flooding process designed for the construction period of the downstream diversion system can be obtained by introducing an initial time difference stochastic factor into the risk calculation. The result from an engineering case study shows that the proposed risk analysis model and the derived risk calculations are reliable and effective, which provide an important basis for the adoption of the diversion construction standard and the optimization of diversion construction planning under the condition of cascade hydropower plant development along a river reach.关键词
梯级施工导流系统/风险分析/Monte-Carlo方法/洪水组合Key words
cascade systems of construction diversion/ risk analysis/ Monte-Carlo method/ flood synthesis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张超,胡志根,刘全..梯级施工导流系统整体风险分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):396-402,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079115 （）
10902078) （）
