中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(6)：120-127,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.06.020
中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望
Evaluation and Prospect of China' s Water Conservancy Modernization Proces
摘要
Abstract
Within the context of China's overall modernization, we construct an index system to evaluate the modernization process of China' s water conservancy from four aspects including safety concerns, economic supports, comfort satisfactions and water ecology & environment protections. Through quantitative evaluation, we estimate the degree of water conservancy modernization achievable in the next five, ten, twenty and forty years. The results show that the degree of water conservancy modernization is 30% in 2000 and 46% in 2010, which indicates the fast development of water conservancy during the past decade. Also we expect that the degree of modernization will reach 56% by 2015, 70% by 2020 and eventually 91% by 2030. It means that in 2030 the water conservancy modernization will be basically realized and water development will accommodate to the high economic development level. In post-2030 era, China will step onto the stage of comprehensive protection and restoration of its water ecological system. And by 2050, China will ultimately achieve the "Green Modernization" with harmonious relation between people and water. Since the state attaches great importance to water conservancy development, we predict that the pace of China's water conservancy modernization will speed up in the next decade, and the goal of water conservancy modernization will essentially be realized by 2030 or earlier.关键词
水管理/水利现代化/评价指标/水利战略Key words
water management/ water conservancy modernization/ evaluation index/ water strategy分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王亚华,黄译萱..中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):120-127,8.基金项目
水利重大课题(编号:水重大(2010)1-1) （编号:水重大(2010）
新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助 （）
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70973064). （编号:70973064）
