灾害学2012，Vol.27Issue(3)：69-74,6.
溪洛渡水电站雨水温度骤降分析与预报
Analysis and Forecast on the Sudden Dropping of Rain Water Temperature at Xiluodu Hydropower Station
摘要
Abstract
The conventional recording rain gauge of automatic weather station at hydropower station is reconstructed and sensors of rain water temperature are added, so that the data of rain water temperature in 2010 and 2011 are obtained. Based on the data, the authors analyzed and forecasted the sudden dropping of rain water temperature during the Xiluodu dam construction. The results show that: (1) Occurrence rate of the sudden drop of rain water temperature arising from rainfall weather process is 37% in 2010 and 2011, the high values of sudden dropping mainly appear in July and August. Precipitation cannot directly decide the range of rain water cooling, as there are more factors that result in the sudden drop of rain water temperature. (2) Using the historical data of 90 rainfall weather processes, authors haye built a optimum subsets regression equation of the sudden dropping of rain water temperature at Xiluodu Dam. The regression precision of the model of optimum subsets regression on the sudden drop of rain water temperature is 73%. The forecast accuracy rate on the sudden dropping of rain water temperature of the equation is 75% , and the Symbols consistent rate of forecast and observation is 100%. It indicates that this optimum subsets regression equation can give a better sudden dropping prediction of rain water temperature at Xiluodu Dam, so it can be applied in actual works.关键词
雨水温度骤降/溪洛渡水电站/最优子集回归/大坝浇筑Key words
sudden drop of rain water temperature/giant hydropower station/optimum subsets regression/concrete dam construction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
秦剑,朱保林,陈艳,綦正信,赵刚,刘瑜..溪洛渡水电站雨水温度骤降分析与预报[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):69-74,6.基金项目
中国长江三峡集团公司2010年溪洛渡水电站雷雨天气条件下雨水温度监测与预测试验项目 （）
