灾害学2012，Vol.27Issue(3)：102-106,5.
林业生物灾害预警的内涵
The Connotation of Early Warning System for Forest Pest Hazard
摘要
Abstract
Early warning of forest pest hazard plays an important role in forest pest control in China. However, there is no wide acceptable definition for this concept yet. Based on both domestic and overseas information, some relevant vague concepts are cleared, and a component module of early warning system ( EWS) for forest pest hazard is proposed. The EWS comprises four parts: potential threats analysis, actual threats verification, alerts releasing and respond. Potential threats can be identified by either pest risk analysis (PRA) or outbreak prediction, or by the both, while actual threats can be detected by threats survey, monitoring or quarantine. Then, assessment of the threats follows. An index, outbreak index (01), is presented to measure the hazard. 01 is an index combining population density (or disease index) and inlested area, which can be calculated with the real data after outbreak or has to be inferred with warning index (e.g. site index, stand index, meteorological index, etc.) before outbreak. The alert can be classified into various grades according to the inferred 01 and then released to both the manager of farm and the public. At the same time, response should be carried out in terms of the preparedness. The effect of response must be evaluated and the preparedness ought to be revised if necessary.关键词
林业有害生物/灾害/预警系统/发生指数Key words
forest pest/hazard/early warning system/outbreak index分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
景天忠,张海侠,董瀛谦,王志英..林业生物灾害预警的内涵[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):102-106,5.基金项目
“十二五”科技计划(2011BAD37B01) （2011BAD37B01）
林业公益性项目(20804023) （20804023）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(DL12CA10) （DL12CA10）
黑龙江省教育厅项目和黑龙江省博士后资助经费 （）
