地震学报2012，Vol.34Issue(4)：509-525,17.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2012.04.008
南北地震带北段强震破裂空段的地震危险性研究
Study on potential earthquake risk of unbroken active faults in the northern segment of the North-South seismic zone
摘要
Abstract
In the northern segment of the North-South seismic zone there are unbroken active faults, on which no Ms≥7. 0 earthquakes have occurred for a long time. These faults can be identified by jointly investigating active tectonics and faulting pattern of strong earthquakes in this region. A viscoelastic stress model is used to estimate the potential earthquake risk on these unbroken active faults. This model could aptly describe transient coseismic elastic response and short-term postseismic exponential strain relaxation. Based on the evolution model of Coulomb failure stress, the spatial pattern of seismicity following the Dieterich rate- and state-dependent constitutive law was calculated. The result of earthquake damage probability estimation indicates that the regions having the risk level from high to low are sequentially the Ruoergai-Jiuzhaigou region of east Kunlun fault, middle and southern Liupanshan fault, Tongxin region of middle and southern Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault, Tianzhu-Dajing region, middle and west segments of western Qinling Mountain fault and east segment of western Qinling Mountain fault.关键词
南北地震带北段/强震破裂空段/库仑应力/动态演化/Burgers体黏弹介质模型/地震发生率/地震危险性Key words
northern segment of North-South seismic zone/ unbroken active faults/ Coulomb failure stress/ evolution model/ viscoelastic stress Burgers model/ seismicity rate/ potential earthquake risk分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
梅秀苹,邵志刚,张浪平,冯建刚,代炜..南北地震带北段强震破裂空段的地震危险性研究[J].地震学报,2012,34(4):509-525,17.基金项目
甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金(2012M02)、中国地震局监测预报司震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务(2010020305)和中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项(02092425)资助. （2012M02）
