电力系统及其自动化学报2012，Vol.24Issue(3)：107-110,126,5.
基于稳健估计时间序列法的风功率预测
Wind Power Forecasting Using Time Series Model Based on Robust Estimation
朱晓荣 1刘艳萍1
作者信息
- 1. 华北电力大学电力与电子工程学院,保定071003
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Time series method based on robust estimation is introduced to make short term prediction of wind power. Firstly the data are preprocesscd, and then the least squares method and robust estimation method are respectively applied to build an autoregressive integrated moving average model, finally the wind power in the next 30 minutes are forecasted, repeating 10 times. The results show that by using the time series model based on robust estimation to predict wind power, the forecasting error of most points is between 5 percent, except one point of 10. 1 percent. The forecasting error is significantly smaller than conventional time series. It proves robust estimation methods can get a better forecast accuracy when the data have few outliers.关键词
风电场出力预测/时间序列法/稳健估计/最小二乘法Key words
wind power forecasting/ time series method/ robust estimation/ the least squares method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
朱晓荣,刘艳萍..基于稳健估计时间序列法的风功率预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(3):107-110,126,5.
