气候变化研究进展2012，Vol.8Issue(3)：190-197,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.03.006
21世纪增暖情景下西北太平洋热带气旋频数的预估
Projection of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over Western North Pacific Under SRES A2, B1 Scenarios in 21st Century
摘要
Abstract
Using the forecasts of the five general circulation models distributed by the IPCC, the large-scale environment over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the high (SRES A2) and low (SRES B1) emission scenarios in the 21st century are projected. The results show that the 500 hPa geopotential height over the tropical WNP and the sea surface temperature, especially in the east-central tropic Pacific, both will be above normal. Furthermore, the low-level anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation will cover the region east to the Philippines in the 21 st century. Thus the large-scale environment will not be conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs), and such an environment will be more remarkable under the SRES A2 scenario or after the mid-21st century. The frequency of TC will possibly decline, but the decreasing trend under the SRES Bl scenario will be weaker than that under the SRES A2. There will still be interdecadal and interannual fluctuations of TC frequency in the 21st century.关键词
热带气旋/趋势/情景/预估Key words
tropical cyclone/ trend/ scenario/ projection引用本文复制引用
何洁琳,管兆勇,钱代丽,廖雪萍..21世纪增暖情景下西北太平洋热带气旋频数的预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(3):190-197,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2007BAC29B02) （2007BAC29B02）
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-25) （CCSF2011-25）
广西自然科学基金项目(2010GXNSFA013010) （2010GXNSFA013010）
