气象科学2012，Vol.32Issue(2)：127-136,10.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0041
中国地区IPCC A1B情景下21世纪中期气候变化的数值模拟试验
A numerical simulation for mid-21st century climate change over China under IPCC A1B scenario
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the both 20-year simulations by MM5V3 regional climate model, which is nested in one-way mode within ECHAM5 general circulation model. Two sets of 50 km grid spacing simulation for present climate (1981 -2000,real C02 scenario) and mid-21Bl century climate (2041 -2060,IPCC A1B scenario) over China are conducted. Present climate simulation results show that MM5 V3 model has the better capability to simulate the spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation when comparing to ECHAM5 model,though in most areas surface air temperature is underestimated and precipitation is overestimated. The climate change simulation by MM5V3 under IPCC A1B scenario indicates that the seasonal mean surface air temperature will increase 1. 2 -3. 9 ℃ in mid-21Bl century, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from south (o north. The seasonal pre cipitation undergoes a significant change as well. Autumn and winter mean precipitation will remarkably increase with a range of 10% to 30% over most parts of China. Meanwhilc, spring and summer mean precipitation will increase in southern China and decrease in northern China both about - 10% to 10%. Furthermore, the changes of surface air temperature and precipitation also have the inter-annual characteristics. Annual mean surface air temperature indicates the increasing trend in all sub-regions,with the increase rate by 0. 7 -0. 9 ℃/10 a. The variability of surface air temperature will increase in all sub-regions. Annual mean total precipitation also shows the increasing trend in all sub-regions except Northwest China.关键词
气候变化/区域气候/温度/降水Key words
Climate change/ Regional climate/ Surface air temperature/ Precipitation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡伯彦,汤剑平,王淑瑜..中国地区IPCC A1B情景下21世纪中期气候变化的数值模拟试验[J].气象科学,2012,32(2):127-136,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2011CB95204) （973）
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40830639) （40830639）
