气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(2)：174-182,9.
中国东部冬季降水的动力结合统计预测方法研究
A hybrid dynamical-statistical approach for predicting winter precipitation over eastern China
摘要
Abstract
Correlation analysis revealed that winter precipitation in six regions of eastern China is closely related not only to preceding climate signals but also to synchronous atmospheric general circulation fields. It is therefore necessary to use a method that combines both dynamical and statistical predictions of winter precipitation over eastern China (hereinafter called the hybrid approach). In this connection, seasonal real-time prediction models for winter precipitation were established for the six regions. The models use both the preceding observations and synchronous numerical predictions through a rnultivariate linear regression analysis. To improve the prediction accuracy, the systematic error between the original regression model result and the corresponding observation was corrected. Cross-validation analysis and real-time prediction experiments indicate that the prediction models using the hybrid approach can reliably predict the trend, sign, and interannual variation of regionally averaged winter precipitation in the six regions of concern. Averaged over the six target regions, the anomaly correlation coefficient and the rate with the same sign of anomaly between the cross-validation analysis and observation during 1982 - 2008 are 0. 69 and 78% , respectively关键词
冬季降水/多元线性回归分析/季节预测模型/动力结合统计预测Key words
Winter precipitation/ Multivariate linear regression analysis/ Seasonal prediction model/ Hybrid dynamical and statistical approach分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郎咸梅..中国东部冬季降水的动力结合统计预测方法研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(2):174-182,9.基金项目
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-3)、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421406)、国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906018)和国家自然科学基金项目(40875048) （KZCX2-YW-Q03-3）
