气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(2)：192-201,10.
多模式集合预报及其降尺度技术在东亚夏季降水预测中的应用
Statistical downscaling of pattern projection using multi-model output variables as predictors
摘要
Abstract
A pattern projection downscaling method is employed to predict monthly station precipitation. The predictand is the monthly precipitation at 1 station in China, 60 stations in Korea, and 8 stations in Thailand. The predictors are multiple variables from the output of operational dynamical models. The hindcast datasets span a period of 21 year from 1983 to 2003. A downscaled prediction is made for each model separately within a leave-one-out cross-validation framework, The pattern projection method uses a moving window, which scans globally, in order to seek the most optimal predictor for each station. The final forecast is the average of the model downscaled precipitation forecasts using the best predictors and is referred to as DMME. It is found that DMME significantly improves the prediction skill by correcting the erroneous signs of the rainfall a-nomalies in coarse resolution predictions of general circulation models. The correlation coefficient between the prediction of DMME and the observation in Beijing of China reaches 0. 71; the skill is improved to 0, 75 for Korea and 0. 61 for Thailand,关键词
降水/动力模式/降尺度/多模式集合Key words
Precipitation/ Dynamical model/ Downscaling/ Multi- model ensemble分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
康红文,祝从文,左志燕,张人禾..多模式集合预报及其降尺度技术在东亚夏季降水预测中的应用[J].气象学报,2012,70(2):192-201,10.基金项目
自然科学基金项目(41075605)、中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金(2009Y001和2010Z001)及水利部公益性行业专项经费项目(200801012) （41075605）
