气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(2)：213-221,9.
最优多因子动态配置的东北汛期降水相似动力预报试验
Analogue-dynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China based on dynamic and optimal configuration of multiple predictors
摘要
Abstract
Based on the National Climate Center (NCC) of China operational seasonal prediction model results for the period 1983 - 2009 and the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation in the same period, together with the 74 circulation indices of NCC Climatc System Diagnostic Division and 40 climate indices of NOAA of US during 1951-2009, an analogue dynamical technique for objective and quantitative prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China is proposed and implemented. Useful information is extracted from the historical data to estimate the model forecast errors. Dominant predictors and the predictors that exhibit evolving analogues are identified through cross validating the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) among single predictors, meanwhile with reference of the results from the dynamic analogue bias correction using four analogue samples. Next, an optimal configuration of multiple predictors is set up and compared with historical optimal multi-predictor configurations and then dynamically adjusted, Finally, the model errors are evaluatcd and utilized to correct the NCC operational seasonal prediction model results, and the forecast of monsoon precipitation is obtained at last. The independent sample validation shows that this technique has effectively improved the monsoon precipitation prediction skill during 2005 - 2009. This study demonstrates that the analogue-dynamical approach is feasible in operational prediction of monsoon precipitation.关键词
相似-动力预报/汛期降水/误差订正/动态最优配置Key words
Analogue-dynamical prediction/ Monsoon precipitation/ Correction of errors. Dynamic and optimal configuration分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
熊开国,封国林,黄建平,丑纪范..最优多因子动态配置的东北汛期降水相似动力预报试验[J].气象学报,2012,70(2):213-221,9.基金项目
公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806005)、国家自然科学基金(40930952和41075058)和国家科技支撑计划(2007BAC29B01和2009BAC51B04) （GYHY200806005）
