热带地理2012，Vol.32Issue(3)：263-268,6.
规划导向的CA约束方法与城市用地格局变化预测——以广州市白云区为例
Planning Guidance Constrained CA Model for Simulating Urban Landuse Pattern: A Case Study of Baiyun District, Guangzhou
摘要
Abstract
Urban evolvement is a complex process of urban system. CelluLar Automata(CA) has strong spatial modeling capabilities, which can be used to simulate urban landuse pattern and can serve as an useful tool for urban landuse pattern forecast. However, CA model based on global constraint conditions can not derive reasonable results when constraint conditions are variable during simulation. In this paper, a CA model with new constraint conditions is brought up to adapt the situation that urban policies and planning are discrete or discontinuous. With this model, urban development strategic modification or periodic planning can be used as constraint factors to control the simulation process. This method has been applied to the simulation and forecast of urban landuse pattern of fast growing city such as Baiyun district, Guangzhou, from 2010 to 2020, when the Twelfth Five-Year Plan will be executed from 2010 to 2015. It is shown that this model is capable to approach variable constraint conditions and helpful to improve the simulation precision. In next 10 years, traffic network will be main control factor to urban landuse pattern. Urban area of Baiyun district will come to 301.62km by 2020.关键词
约束/CA/城市规划/土地利用变化/广州白云区Key words
constraint/ Cellular Automata/ urban planning/ land use change/ Baiyun District of Guangzhou分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
乔纪纲,邹春洋..规划导向的CA约束方法与城市用地格局变化预测——以广州市白云区为例[J].热带地理,2012,32(3):263-268,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40901187 （）
41171308) （）
广东省自然科学基金项目(S2011040003226) （S2011040003226）
