水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(7)：803-807,5.
考虑洪水过程预报误差的水库防洪调度风险分析
Risk estimation of reservoir flood operation in consideration of inflow hydrograph forecasting error
摘要
Abstract
Based on the definition of determination coefficient of flood forecasting, the relationship between forecasting standard error and coefficient of determination was deduced and the foreeasting error distribution of reservoir in flow hydrograph was analyzed. The stochastic differential equations （SDEs） were applied to reservoir flood routing for risk estimation of reservoir flood operation. The uncertainty of inflow hydrograph forecasting error was transformed into that of reservoir water level, through the derivation of relation be- tween variance rate of SDEs and standard error of inflow forecasting error. The Geheyan reservoir was select- ed as a case study. Extreme and overtopping risks of the reservoir under different forecasting accuracy were estimated, which can provide the guide to reservoir flood control.关键词
风险分析/随机微分/洪水预报误差/预报调度Key words
risk analysis/stochastic differential equations/flood forecasting error/flood control operation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
闫宝伟,郭生练..考虑洪水过程预报误差的水库防洪调度风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):803-807,5.基金项目
资助项目：国家科技支撑计划 （）
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
