水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(7)：852-859,868,9.
基于生命质量指数的病险水库除险加固效应评价方法
Quantitative evaluation framework of reinforcement based on the LQI for dangerous dams
摘要
Abstract
At present, the reinforcement cost analysis for dangerous dams, which is qualitatively deter- mined according to the corresponding standards, is preliminary and provides a limited degree of quantitative guidance to decision-makers. The life quality index （LQI）, as a compound social indicator composing soci- etal wealth and longevity, can be used as a tool to harmonize reinforcement costs and safety levels. In this paper, the LQ1 is described as a criterion for optimizing dam failure risk. Based on measured data, an esti- mating formula of life loss eaused by dam failure flood was fitted. On the basis of the current standards, a quantitative evaluation model for decision making of reinforcement costs of dangerous dams was presented. As an application, a dangerous homogeneous earth darn located in east China was examined. The seepage failure probabilities before and after reinforcement of the discussed dam were calculated using the proposed simple formula. Life loss upon dam failure flood was estimated. Combined with the local economic and so- cial development level, the LQI parameters were obtained. Finally the societal willingness to pay （SWTP） and the benefit-cost ratio based on the LQI （i.e. dL/L） were obtained. The SWTP is larger than the budget of the reinforcement and the ratio dL/L is positive, which show that the reinforcement measure is reason- able. This results in a useful tool to determine optimal safety level of dams.关键词
病险水库/除险加固决策/LQI/溃坝生命损失/风险管理/失效风险率Key words
dangerous dams/reinforcement decision-making/LQI/life loss upon dam failure/risk man- agement/failure probability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
胡江,苏怀智..基于生命质量指数的病险水库除险加固效应评价方法[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):852-859,868,9.基金项目
基金项目：国家自然科学基金 （）
新世纪优秀人才支持计划 （）
国家重点实验室专项经费资助项目 （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助 （）
江苏省第四期“333工程”培养资金资助项目 （）
