水土保持通报2012，Vol.32Issue(3)：188-191,244,5.
变化环境下黄河中下游洪涝灾害发展新趋势
New Evolution Tendencies of Flood Disasters Under Changing Environment in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
The processes of water cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River change under the combined effects of climate change and human activities,which impacts flood disaster modes and evolution tendencies.Status of flood disasters,as well as wet and dry cycle,frequency and intensity of precipitation in the area are analyzed using Morlet wavelet and trend analysis.The variations of hazard inducing environment,disaster causing factors and vulnerability of hazard bearing body are analyzed in combination with social and economic development,relations between water and sediment and mechanisms of ice floods.Finally,new evolution tendencies of floods are identified： floods in the area will be more serious on the whole,especially in tributaries and small watersheds;floods with low peak discharge may result in heavy losses;and ice floods tend toward mitigation.关键词
黄河中下游流域/洪涝灾害/水沙关系/凌汛Key words
middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River/flood disaster/water and sediment relation/ice flood分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
耿思敏,严登华,罗先香,郑晓东..变化环境下黄河中下游洪涝灾害发展新趋势[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(3):188-191,244,5.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）“气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估” （）
