物理学报2012，Vol.61Issue(11)：548-555,8.
旱涝预测的演化建模方法
Evolutionary modeling for dryness and wetness prediction
摘要
Abstract
A new method of predicting dryness and wetness based on evolutionary modeling（EM） is presented in this paper.Numerical tests indicate that the basic dynamic characteriscs can be captured by EM and the model obtained by EM is not only able to preferablely simulate historical evolution,but also can exactly predict the future evolutionary trend of a time series.For the model obtained by EM with relatively larger prediction errors,the secondary EM can improve the prediction accuracy obviously.关键词
旱涝预测/旱涝等级序列/演化建模/预测误差Key words
dryness and wetness prediction/dryness and wetness grades series/evolutionary modeling/prediction error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
何文平,王柳,万仕全,廖乐健,何涛..旱涝预测的演化建模方法[J].物理学报,2012,61(11):548-555,8.基金项目
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划 （）
国家自然科学基金 （）
公益性行业（气象）科研号项（批准号：GYHY201106015,GYHY201106016）资助的课题 （）
