中国海洋湖沼学报（英文版）2012，Vol.30Issue(4)：587-594,8.
A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China
A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China
摘要
Abstract
Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication.Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms,a good and applicable method is still lacking.This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms.In this study,phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October,2010.The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations,and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap.In July,the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u.,arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u.in September.A significant correlation (R=0.998,P＜0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model,we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms.Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature,dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline.Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition,the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure.This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.关键词
Microcystis bloom/niche breadth/niche overlap/predictive model/Chaohu LakeKey words
Microcystis bloom/niche breadth/niche overlap/predictive model/Chaohu Lake引用本文复制引用
WANG Zhicong,LI Zhongjie,LI Dunhai..A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China[J].中国海洋湖沼学报（英文版）,2012,30(4):587-594,8.基金项目
Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(No.2008CB418002),the National Major Programs of Water Body Pollution Control and Remediation (Nos.2009ZX07106-001,2009ZX07104-005),and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.30830025) （973 Program）
