北京师范大学学报：自然科学版2012，Vol.48Issue(4)：399-405,7.
渭河流域近50年来气候变化趋势及突变分析
CLIMATE CHANGE AND MUTATION ANALYSIS IN WEIHE RIVER BASIN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS
摘要
Abstract
Meteorological data from 1958--2008 in Weihe River were used to analyze time series trend of precipitation and temperature in Weihe River basin, by the Mann-Kendall and R/S method, Point mutations were then calculated. It was found that the average annual precipitation on Weihe River showed a rising trend from upstream to downstream. The annual precipitation decreased during the last 50 years, but with no statistical significance. The decreasing trend of precipitation was significant in spring and autumn; but a significant increase was seen in winter. Hurst index was found to be 0.49, showing a weak variation, future precipitation variation being insignificant. It was also found that the average annual temperature in the middle reaches were maximal in the Weihe basin. A marked upward trend was found by time series method, significant in spring, autumn, winter, but not significantly in summer. Viewed from the Hurst exponent, future annual average temperature was likely to continue to rise. Analysis of temperature and precipitation mutation revealed complex changes in precipitation, every 50 years showed a different degree of mutation, this being particularly significant for the 60＂s and 90＂s. Compared with complex precipitation change, temperature for each site mutation occurred only once in the 90s, and it was significantly warmer after temperature mutation.关键词
渭河流域/气候变化/Mann-Kendall法/R／S法/Hurst指数Key words
Weihe River basin/climate change/Mann-Kendall method/R/S method/Hurst index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
占车生,乔晨,徐宗学,金惠淑..渭河流域近50年来气候变化趋势及突变分析[J].北京师范大学学报：自然科学版,2012,48(4):399-405,7.基金项目
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目 （）
科技部国际合作资助项目 （）
