电工技术学报2012，Vol.27Issue(8)：187-193,7.
基于RVM与ARMA误差校正的短期风速预测
Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on RVM and ARMA Error Correcting
摘要
Abstract
To improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting,a method based on relevant vector machine（RVM） and auto-regressive moving average（ARMA） error correcting is proposed.Firstly,the nonlinear model of influencing factors and wind speed of the next 24 hours are built based on RVM,and genetic algorithm（GA） is used to ensure the optimization of model parameters.Secondly,the error series of wind speed forecasted by RVM model are adjusted by ARMA model.Finally,the forecasted wind speed is amended by the forecasting errors,which are generated by ARMA model.The wind speed forecasting results of any day in the future for a wind farm in the Jiangsu province demonstrate that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.关键词
风速预测/误差校正/RVM模型/AMRA模型Key words
Wind speed forecasting/error correcting/RVM model/ARMA model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
孙国强,卫志农,翟玮星..基于RVM与ARMA误差校正的短期风速预测[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(8):187-193,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
