电气技术Issue(5)：14-17,21,5.
改进的GM（1,1）模型在配电网日负荷预测中的应用
Application of Improved GM（1,1） in Distribution Network Daily Load Forecasting
陈辰旭 1杨耿杰 1郭谋发1
作者信息
- 1. 福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福州350108
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The model of GM（1.1） is usual used in grey forecasting, sometimes the prediction accuracy of the model is relatively low when the load has larger fluctuation. The paper puts forward an improved grey system model based on equal dimension and new information for the daily load which has larger cyclical fluctuation, that is ＂moving average-inverse hyperbolic cosine＂ model. In order to increase the prediction accuracy, the method do pretreatment on the data of equal dimension, it can reduce grey degree and improve the smoothness of discrete data. The application of improved grey system model in daily load forecasting is introduced through two typical and practical examples. The results show that the method can increase the forecasting accuracy.关键词
日负荷预测/GM（1,1）模型/等维新息/滑动平均/反双曲余弦Key words
daily load forecasting/GM(1/1) model/equal dimension and new information/moving average/inverse hyperbolic cosine分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈辰旭,杨耿杰,郭谋发..改进的GM（1,1）模型在配电网日负荷预测中的应用[J].电气技术,2012,(5):14-17,21,5.
