电力系统及其自动化学报2012，Vol.24Issue(4)：54-58,5.
分步预测法在省级电网短期负荷预测中的应用
Application of Sub Step Forecasting Method in Provincial Grid Short-term Load Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
As load characteristics in different cities greatly differ from each other, the pure application of the historical data of the provincial load and the comprehensive meteorological elements of the whole province will produce great errors, so that the short - term load forecasting by means of the sub step forecasting method is proposed. Based on the analysis of provincial load components and the load forecasting methods for different regions, as well as the search of network losses similar days and the auxiliary power rate, the effective forecast is conducted to network losses and the auxiliary power by way of the planned load reported by the subordinate power grid, so as to obtain the provincial power generation schedule of the next day. The analysis shows that this method can sufficiently reflect the changes of every component of the provincial load, and improve the accuracy rate of the provincial load to some extent. The effectiveness of this method is proved by the application of the short-term load forecasting system in a southern province.关键词
短期负荷预测/网供负荷/网损/厂用电/相似日Key words
short-term load forecasting/ network-supplied load/ network losses/ auxiliary power/ similar day分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
程义明,罗滇生,何洪英,胡强,廖峰,蔡剑彪..分步预测法在省级电网短期负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(4):54-58,5.基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金委员会与衡阳市政府自然科学联合基金资助(11JJ8003) （11JJ8003）
