电力系统及其自动化学报2012，Vol.24Issue(4)：150-156,7.
中长期电力负荷预测模型筛选与组合方法
Sifting and Combination Method of Medium-and Long-Term Load Forecasting Model
金鑫 1罗滇生 1孙广强 2张红旭 2郑盾 3武斌 3李朝阳3
作者信息
- 1. 湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082
- 2. 河南省电力勘测设计院,郑州450007
- 3. 郑州供电公司,郑州450006
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The idea of forecasting and decision-making is introduced for multi-model combination in this paper. Based on the merit and demerit of the current forecasting model screening methods the evaluation system of indicator for forecasting model on the basis of grey relational grade and forecasting validity is improved. According to the concepts proposed previously, such as the coordination factor and comprehensive validity index, the forecasting model screening method based on the comprehensive validity index and model redundancy verification is established. The medium-and-long-term load variable weighting combination forecasting model based on the comprehensive validity index system is also presented. The proposed model is proved to be more effective and accurate from the analysis of the instances.关键词
组合预测/中长期负荷预测/综合有效性指标/协调因子Key words
combination forecast/ medium-and long-term load forecast/ comprehensive validity indicator/ coordination factor
分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
金鑫,罗滇生,孙广强,张红旭,郑盾,武斌,李朝阳..中长期电力负荷预测模型筛选与组合方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(4):150-156,7.
