电力系统自动化2012，Vol.36Issue(10)：27-32,6.
考虑天气不确定性的光伏电站置信容量评估
Capacity Credit Evaluation of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Generation Considering Weather Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
Photovoltaic （PV） generation is still considered to be an energy-replacement rather than capacity-replacement source because of its intermittent nature. Given that power system reliability can be elevated after integrating PV generation to the system, the PV generation should have a capacity credit to some extent. Evaluating this capacity credit is one of the urgent problems when planning for large-scare PV station integration into a traditional power system. A new method for evaluating the capacity credit of a PV generation station is proposed. Firstly, an annual PV generation fluctuating model is given. This model considers weather random conditions including the probability of different weathers, the maximum proportion of solar radiation under various weathers, the radiation fluctuation range due to clouds mask and the temperature coefficient random variation range. Secondly, a reliability index computation method based on the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed. The secant method is used as the iteration algorithm to get the capacity credit of the PV generation station, in which the convergence criterion facilitates testing two large samples＇ means equal （the u testing） of hypothesis testing methods in the mathematical statistics. Finally, the proposed model and algorithm are validated with a benchmark reliability system.关键词
光伏发电/序贯蒙特卡洛仿真/置信容量/发电可靠性/假设检验Key words
photovoltaic generation/sequential Monte-Carlo simulation/capacity credit/generation reliability/hypothesis testing分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
方鑫,郭强,张东霞,梁双..考虑天气不确定性的光伏电站置信容量评估[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):27-32,6.
