干旱区研究2012，Vol.29Issue(4)：654-659,6.
武威市相对湿度气候特征及预报
Climate Characteristics and Forecast of Relative Humidity in Wuwei City
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, the spatiotemporal distribution and change trend of relative humidity were systematically analyzed based on the mean relative humidity data observed by 5 meteorological stations in Wuwei City during the period from 1960 to 2009. The result shows that relative humidity was low in the north but high in the south. Annu- al and decadal relative humidity was holistically in a decrease trend, and there was a 6 -8-year periodic change. Relative humidity was the highest in summer, than in autumn, it was the lowest in spring, holistically in an in- crease trend in winter, and in a decrease trend in other seasons. Relative humidity was the highest in August and September and the lowest in April, and it was high in the morning and evening but low around noon. There was a counter correlation between the diumalvariations of relative humidity and temperature. The daily ECMWF numerical forecast grid field data at 20：00 during the period from 2003 to 2007 were used, the forecast factor was initially e- lected with Press criterion, the forecast factor was chosen with stepwise regression forecast method, and the relative humidity forecast equations were developed with optimal subset regression. The overall situation and the most supe- rior significance forecast equations of mean monthly relative humidity were determined with the CSC double grading criterion, and the prognostic equations were at a confidence level ofα=0. 01. Back substitution fitting rate of the prognostic equations varied in a range of 70% -77% , and the forecast accuracy rate in a range of 65% -72%. Objective and effective instruction products could be provided for forecasting relative humidity.关键词
相对湿度/时空分布/降水/气温/数值预报/武威市Key words
relative humidity/spatiotemporal distribution/precipitation/temperature/numerical forecast/Wu-wei City分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘明春,杨晓玲,殷玉春,胡津革..武威市相对湿度气候特征及预报[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(4):654-659,6.基金项目
甘肃省气象扁第五批“十人计划” （）
甘肃省气象局2007年面上科研项目“石羊河流域精细面雨量预报技术和方法研究”（2207-08）共同资助 （）
