电力系统保护与控制2012，Vol.40Issue(13)：55-60,6.
基于灰色预测的电力电缆老化过程预警仿真研究
Simulation study on pre-alarm of power cable aging process based on grey prediction
摘要
Abstract
In order to monitor the process of power cable aging and give a pre-alarm, the simulation of cable aging process is made in perfect condition, and then the current signal that can characterize the status of power cable is gotten. The grey prediction theory is introduced to cable aging prediction, and then a comparative analysis is made with a neural network prediction model based on time series. The results show that, in the paper's condition, prediction accuracy, repeatability of the process and computing speed of grey prediction model based on metabolism are superior to that of the neural network prediction model. Therefore, when reflecting the aging of cable insulation by predicting the current trend, the improved grey prediction compared with neural network has certain advantages. Meanwhile, a cable aging early warning mechanism is established, which provides a criterion for further diagnosis and maintenance of aging serious power cables.关键词
电力电缆/老化/预警/灰色理论/神经网络Key words
power cable/ aging/ pre-alarm/ grey system theory/ neural networks分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
孙仲民,何正友,戴铭..基于灰色预测的电力电缆老化过程预警仿真研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(13):55-60,6.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SWJTU11ZT07) （SWJTU11ZT07）
